AS OF 2022-7-29 The calculator is now archived/unsupported; due to a production update from Valve. All new orders are in Q4, if that queue fills up orders will go into the next quarter.
Accuracy has been within +-2 weeks for most users, and estimates still may be useful for Q3.

Expected Order Date Calculator

Created by moo, contribute on GitHub

This calculator is designed to allow for extending it's ability as Valve releases more information. The form that is provided collects as much data as possible, and is ready for collecting order confirmation emails too. If anyone has their own data they have collected please contribute it, or let me know! If you are a developer, or have an algo you want to add, please contribute!

Disclaimer: This is an estimator. It creates magic numbers out of thin air. Assume the magic numbers are wrong. But copium is addicting!

1. Fill out Steam Deck Shipment estimator form with your information: Link to results spreadsheet
2. Model:
3. Region:
3. Current Valve Estimated Order Availabilty:
4. rtReserveTime (ex 1626454969, help below):
Method A: and copy rtReserveTime from the response. If you see a black screen, highlight or press CTRL + A to highlight, the text might also be black
Method B: Log into Steam on your browser. Then visit the API for reservations . Copy rtReserveTime from the response.
Method C: You can also use the received time of your pre-order email if you convert it to an unix timestamp (
5. Import data (currently using: No data imported )

Upload the latest data manually. Export the spreadsheet as a CSV, then upload it here.
6. Calculate your estimated order availabilty date, or contribute your own!

Estimated Order Date: ????????????
??? day(s) ?? hour(s) ?? minute(s) ?? second(s)

Orders are sent on a weekly basis. Each batch of emails will be on Mondays except launch day (source)
Release was Feb 25th 10am est.

How does it work?

Moo's method attempts to simulate the number of deck orders each minute and Valve's throughput of decks each day. Then it calculates the estimated ship date based on throughput each day. It supports almost any date, but is most accurate for the first day of orders and the 512GB model due to that being where most of the sample data is. This algo also generates a lot of cool data, like orders over time, how many units will ship each month, etc... TODO extract and display the data.

Gecked's method interpolates estimated dates in the sample data. This means it does not support After Q2 dates.

Abyzma's method randomly selects a date within your quarter

- Raw data viewer
- Digest of order ratios, graphs
- Include a table of region, model, and pre-order time compared to estimated order time